Quantitative assessment of the impact of regulatory actions on the cryptocurrency market in the Russian Federation
https://doi.org/10.29030/2309-2076-2025-18-4-66-76
Abstract
The article presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of regulatory actions on the cryptocurrency market in Russia. The relevance of the study is driven by the market’s rapid growth and the formation of a new regulatory framework. The aim is to measure user reaction to regulatory statements and legislative changes using data on trading volumes and search queries from 2023–2025.
The methodology is based on event and correlation analysis. Key events were analyzed: the liberalization of crypto operations in foreign trade, the legalization of mining, and the introduction of taxation. Data was sourced from Yandex.Wordstat, the Binance exchange, and Bank of Russia reports.
The results reveal a strong correlation (0.85) between search interest in taxes and trading activity. Peaks in queries and trading volumes synchronously follow legislative initiatives, confirming the market’s high sensitivity to regulatory actions. At the same time, interest in taxation is short-term and driven by local news, unlike Bitcoin’s price dynamics, which depend on global factors.
The practical value of the work lies in providing regulators with a tool to assess the effectiveness of communication policies and make targeted legislative adjustments based on data on actual user behavior.
About the Authors
A. A. Zabarov
National University of Oil and Gas «Gubkin University»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Artur A. Zabarov – analyst, faculty of integrated security of fuel and energy complex
Moscow
T. V. Kirichenko
National University of Oil and Gas «Gubkin University»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Tatiana V. Kirichenko – doctor of economic sciences, professor of the Department of digital economy security and risk management
Moscow
A. A. Komzolov
National University of Oil and Gas «Gubkin University»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexey A. Komzolov – doctor of economic sciences, professor of the Department of digital economy security and risk management
Moscow
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For citations:
Zabarov A.A., Kirichenko T.V., Komzolov A.A. Quantitative assessment of the impact of regulatory actions on the cryptocurrency market in the Russian Federation. Economic Systems. 2025;18(4):66-76. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.29030/2309-2076-2025-18-4-66-76
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