Modelling the operation and development of the global LNG market

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is becoming an increasingly important element of the global energy system. In the context of growing dependence on energy resources, climate change and the need to switch to more environmentally friendly energy sources, the LNG market demonstrates significant growth and transformation. The article is also devoted to the consideration of the model for forecasting global supplies of liquefied natural gas, its formation, economic and mathematical content. The developed model for forecasting global supplies of liquefied natural gas, for the first time takes into account in detail the current state and prospects for the development of the tanker fleet when modeling LNG transportation. The developed model allows calculating the distribution of global LNG flows from natural gas liquefaction plants to receiving regasification terminals.

The calculation is based on the criterion of minimum costs for LNG production, transportation and regasification with the maximum possible satisfaction of demand. The model takes into account the capacities of all existing and prospective global LNG plants and receiving terminals. Optimization is carried out taking into account the concluded contracts for LNG supplies, existing and prospective capacities of the world tanker fleet, as well as freight contracts. It is envisaged to specify various scenarios of demand and prices for LNG in world sales markets. The use of the constructed economic and mathematical model can provide Russian producers with competitive advantages in the LNG market, due to more accurate forecasting of the LNG market. 

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