Assessing the impact of foreign economic and regulatory changes on the performance of oil and gas companies

The objective of the study is to evaluate the performance of Russian and foreign oil companies based on a factor analysis of return on equity in the context of the financial, economic, price and sanctions shocks of 2007–2024. The relevance of the work is due to the systemically important role of the oil and gas sector in the Russian economy and the need to apply modern analytical tools to compare the results of Russian companies with foreign competitors and assess their resilience to crises.
The object of the study is the financial indicators of the selected vertically integrated oil and gas companies, the subject of the study is the methods of deterministic factor analysis that allow for a quantitative assessment of the contribution of individual financial ratios to changes in return on equity. The paper analyzes the ROE dynamics for the period 2007–2024, substantiates the choice of this indicator as a key performance indicator and considers the influence of the tax and interest burden, return on sales, asset turnover and financial leverage on the final result.
The methods of classification, decomposition, statistical, comparative and factor analysis were used; A five-factor decomposition was performed using the DuPont model and, using the LMDI-1 model, the impact of changes in each factor on ROE was calculated in the main crisis intervals of 2008–2009, 2013–2014, 2015–2016, 2019–2020 and 2023–2024.
It was concluded that the domestic company demonstrates a higher, but more volatile return on equity, while the foreign one is characterized by a more stable operating model. And also, the fact that the Russian company is more strongly influenced by changes in the external economic environment. Russia's tax system was also more unstable compared to China. In addition, if before 2016 the tax system took into account the interests of the development of the industry, then since 2019 it has been purely fiscal in nature, constraining the development of the industry.

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