Approaches to risk modeling for making management decisions on the implementation of an oil and gas investment project

The modern oil and gas industry is a pronounced project industry, the life cycle of which involves the implementation of large investment projects to create oil and gas industry facilities, characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, which is usually described by such a category as challenges – significant changes in the internal and/or external environment. These challenges can create threats – a combination of some factors that create prerequisites for possible damage to the economic interests of the owners of an oil and gas company implementing an investment project. In turn, threats can generate risks – the possibility of harming an investor implementing an oil and gas project. The approaches of the authors of the article to modeling the risks of oil and gas projects differ, firstly, by a clear separation of threats and risks, where exactly at the risk level there is the possibility of their quantitative modeling. Secondly, by reducing all identified threats to risks. And, thirdly, the construction of risk models involving modeling the impact of risks on the input parameters of models of the effectiveness of investment projects, such as inflows and outflows of the project, as well as the timing of its implementation. The work on a specific project shows the efficiency of the proposed approaches. 

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