Prospects for the development of the Russian coal industry: pessimistic and optimistic scenarios

The coal industry is one of the most important sectors in the economy of both Russia and the world. This is due to the fact that coal remains one of the essential raw materials for energy and many other industries. A number of factors influence the demand for coal. Demographic – population growth and urbanization, technological – the development of coal mining technology, environmental, climate – the pursuit of a green agenda, decarbonization, the Covid-19 pandemic and the fall in industrial production. The purpose of the article is to consider the factors influencing the coal market and the prospects for the development of the Russian coal industry.

The article considers UN data, forecasts and estimates of the International Energy Agency, estimates of specialized companies and specialists in the field of coal energy. Based on the results of the analysis, it was concluded that over the past few years, due to the prevailing climate and environmental policies for decarbonization in Western countries, the policy for the introduction of «green» energy, the forecasts for the development of the coal market were pessimistic. But the rise in gas prices associated with the anti-Russian sanctions policy, with the blocking of Nord Stream-2, the difficulties with the introduction of «green» energy increase the demand for coal in the world market, make the optimistic scenario for the development of the coal industry more likely.

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