Assessment of the strategic potential of defense industry enterprises in the context of diversification and import substitution

The defense-industrial complex of the Russian Federation operates under a multifactorial strategic challenge: the necessity to unconditionally fulfill the state defense order, increase the share of dual-use and civilian products (production diversification) and overcome sanctions pressure through import substitution of critical components. Existing methodological approaches to assessing the strategic potential of an enterprise – industrial-economic, resource-oriented, and structural-functional – do not account for the specifics of DIC enterprises and lack specialized indicators reflecting technological independence and readiness for diversification. This article proposes a methodology for comprehensive SPE assessment, based on a hierarchical system of five groups of specific indicators: production-technological, financial-economic, human resources, scientific-technical potential, and readiness for diversification. The aggregation of indicators is carried out using a two-level multiplicative convolution, which prevents the compensation of weak links by strong ones and ensures systemic identification of bottlenecks in strategic potential.

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